
Australian urea wholesale prices have fallen to about A$950/t from A$1390 earlier in the month, shifting from shortage toward oversupply. Retailers are criticizing the government's A$7.5 billion import underwriting scheme as distorting the local market.
A growing global backlog of Persian Gulf product is expected to arrive by spring, pointing to further nitrogen price declines. Input cost relief for Australian livestock and grain producers is likely, though the subsidy scheme adds local price distortion.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.