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US Gulf Coast diesel cargoes are being offered again in Europe's diesel spot market after a near six-month hiatus. Several traders have shown US fuel in the end-of-day trading window since the trans-Atlantic arbitrage reopened earlier in December.
Returning US diesel exports signal ample supply, which argues against sustained diesel price strength and lowers fuel costs.
After 28 past bearish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.0% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.