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Bumper Russian ultra-low-sulfur diesel exports through the Baltics are creating unusual product movements as Northwest Europe demand remains weak.
Excess Russian diesel supply into a weak European market points to soft European diesel prices, a bearish signal for global diesel benchmarks.
After 28 past bearish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.0% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.