
Diesel prices fell in Europe and globally even as crude and diesel moved in opposite directions during the seasonal shoulder period. European importers sourced more ULSD from the Middle East, India, the US, China, Singapore, South Korea and Turkey to replace Russian barrels, and Russian diesel exports hit a postwar high.
Diverse replacement supply for Europe's diesel is keeping distillate prices soft, which limits upward pressure on fuel and freight costs for feed makers.
After 28 past bearish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.0% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.