India removed its 10 percent wheat import duty indefinitely on December 8, 2016, replacing the earlier provision that was set to run until March 1, 2017. USDA raised its 2016/17 Indian wheat import forecast to 3.7 million tonnes and lowered ending stocks to 8 million tonnes.
Removing the duty makes imported wheat cheaper for India, a sizable new import source that tightens world wheat balances and supports export prices.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 37 past bullish policy events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.0%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.