Indonesian industry bodies and analyst Dorab Mistry reviewed the crude palm oil outlook for 2017. El Nino cut Indonesian output from 32.5 million tons in 2015 to a projected 30 million in 2016, and CPO prices recovered from a multi-year low of USD 526 per ton in November 2015 to an expected average of USD 670 in 2016.
Weather-driven output losses tightened supply and supported prices through 2016. The expected recovery in 2017 output is the key factor for whether that price support persists.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.