
Glenauk Economics expects Indonesia's palm oil supply to stay tight through 2024, with production down about 200,000 tonnes year on year, mainly due to adverse weather and high input costs. Gapki data showed May 2024 output fell 16% and exports fell 12% year on year, with stocks down 12%.
Analysts said Malaysia could benefit from buyers shifting toward its supply.
Low Indonesian output and stocks support high crude palm oil prices and redirect demand toward Malaysia. Tight global palm oil supply is supportive for vegetable oil and feed-related values.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.