PotashCorp reported that its average nitrogen selling price fell 37% to $182 per ton in 4Q16, with ammonia down 46% and urea down 18% year over year. For full-year 2016, nitrogen prices averaged 33% lower than in 2015.
The company's nitrogen segment sales fell 33% in the quarter despite a 5% rise in shipments.
Lower nitrogen prices reflect ample supply and weaker input costs, which is a bearish signal for fertiliser costs that feed producers face, though recent price rebounds suggest the trend is turning.
After 42 past bearish report events, UREA moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.