
Canadian farmers are seeding more oats this spring because disease pressure, including fusarium, has hurt wheat and barley quality. Grain Millers Canada reports more oat contracts on its books than at any point in the same period before, while oat prices hold steady near C$3/bu in Yorkton.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecasts 3 million acres of oats in 2017, up from 2.8 million in 2016.
Expected acreage growth in oats adds supply, but steady demand is keeping prices stable, and switching away from disease-hit wheat and barley could weigh on feed grain values.
After 16 past disease events, Oats moved a median +2.3% over 5 sessions (69% higher; middle half -2.7% to +4.3%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.