Prairie producers are considering oats as an alternative to wheat and barley this spring because of quality concerns from last year's disease pressure. A Grain Millers Canada merchant says oat contracts are higher than ever for this time of year, and new-crop and spot oats are trading near C$3/bu.
Acreage is forecast to rise to 3 million acres in 2017.
Higher oat acreage from disease-driven switching increases supply, while steady demand keeps prices flat for now.
After 16 past disease events, Oats moved a median +2.3% over 5 sessions (69% higher; middle half -2.7% to +4.3%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.