
The USDA's Agricultural Projections to 2026 forecast US milk production rising about 22% by 2026 versus 2016. Most of the gain comes from higher milk yield per cow, with the herd growing only 0.9% to 9.4 million head.
Sustained growth in US milk output, driven by yield rather than herd size, implies ample dairy supplies and modest pressure on milk prices over the decade, while relatively low projected feed prices support producer margins.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.