
ABARES raised South Australia's 2016-17 winter crop estimate 56% to 11.2 million tonnes on higher yields, with the area sown unchanged at 3.5 million hectares. Barley rose 59% to 3Mt and wheat rose 51% to 6.6Mt, with a record average wheat yield of 3.3 t/ha.
Lentil output doubled to 420,000t.
Stronger South Australian barley and wheat output adds to the national surplus and supports an export-driven bearish bias for grain prices. The effect is part of a wider Australian supply increase.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.