PIRSA raised its South Australian crop estimate to 9.2 Mt from 9 Mt in September, with yields meeting or slightly exceeding expectations after an early harvest. Dry August to October conditions held crop potential to near-average levels in most regions.
A small upward revision to SA output adds modest supply, limiting upside for Australian wheat and barley prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.