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ABARES raised its September Australian Crop Report estimates to 33.77Mt wheat, 14.55Mt barley and 6.45Mt canola, all up from June. Total winter crop production is forecast at 62Mt, the third-largest on record, after improved rainfall in South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia.
Southern New South Wales is the exception, with crops receiving only enough rain to maintain growth.
A larger Australian crop adds export supply for wheat, barley and canola meal from late 2025, which pressures world prices. Dry conditions in southern NSW are the main risk to the upgrade.
graincentral.comGrain CentralSep 1, 2025After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
