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US wheat futures hit contract lows after breaking long-term support, with May SRW at 551 cents per bushel. The USDA's outlook forum for 2024/25 was broadly bearish for major US crops.
EU milling wheat fell to near 190 euros per tonne amid large EU stocks.
Lower prices reflect strong global supply and expectations of sound 2024/25 production. The HRW drought premium has evaporated, removing a source of support for that class.
stockjournal.com.auEd Scamps, Cloudbreak Grain MarketingMar 5, 2024After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
