A glut of idle barges is clogging Mississippi River shorelines from St. Louis to New Orleans despite record corn and soybean exports. Barge lease rates have fallen more than 30% below the five-year February average, and St. Louis to Gulf rates have dropped to $8.40 per ton from an $18.00 pre-harvest high.
Oversupplied barge capacity pushes freight costs down, which lowers the cost of moving grain to Gulf export terminals and can widen the spread between interior and Gulf prices.
After 284 past neutral logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 230 past neutral logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.