
Flooding has kept most of the upper Mississippi River closed, and only 12 barges had reached St. Paul so far in the 2019 season. Closures at Locks 11 through 27 and at the St. Louis harbor have halted barge movement, and the DTN analysis cites USDA data showing the effect on barge volumes.
The flooding has also hit fertilizer, grain and oilseed movements to the Gulf.
Halted barge movement limits grain and oilseed flows to the Gulf, widens the spread between river and Gulf prices, and raises freight costs for fertilizer and grain.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 284 past neutral logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 230 past neutral logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 49 past bullish logistics events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.