A Potsdam Institute study ran computer simulations of U.S. wheat, maize and soybean yields under rising temperatures. The model reproduced past yield losses from heat and found that irrigation can offset some damage only where water is available.
The findings are long-range climate projections with no immediate effect on supply or prices, but they point to a risk of future yield losses for feed grains and oilseeds.
After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.