
ICE canola futures closed higher on Tuesday, showing strength independent of the weaker Chicago soy complex. Rain improved dry areas of the western Prairies but slowed seeding in the wet eastern Prairies, with many acres in Manitoba expected to go unplanted.
USDA reported 88 percent of U.S. soybeans planted and first soybean condition ratings at 70 percent good to excellent.
Prairie planting delays and unplanted acres in Manitoba tighten the outlook for Canadian canola supply, supporting canola meal and seed prices, while solid U.S. crop ratings limit soybean upside.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.