India plans to end urea imports within five years by boosting domestic production, targeting zero imports by 2022. The country produced 24.5 million tonnes in the year to March 2016 against about 32 million tonnes of consumption, and imported more than a quarter of its needs from Oman, China and Iran.
A sustained cut in India's urea imports, the world's second-largest consumer, would reduce global import demand and bear on urea prices over the long term, though the timeline is distant.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.