Fires in southwest Buenos Aires province and floods in major producing areas have caused losses that could exceed 5 million metric tons. A new cold front and rains were forecast to continue for about five days.
Rosario and Buenos Aires exchanges raised their soybean output estimates to 56 to 56.5 million tonnes.
Flood losses and harvest delays in Argentina cut export supply of soybeans and meal, which supports soymeal and soybean prices. Yield resilience and raised official estimates partly offset the damage.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.