
India's GST Council set a 12% goods and services tax rate on fertilizers, up from the current 4-8%, effective under the new regime. Retail urea could rise by Rs300-400 per tonne, and DAP could rise up to Rs3,000 per tonne in states that currently levy no tax.
A proposed 5% GST on road transport could add further cost.
Higher Indian fertilizer retail prices could raise farm costs and push government subsidy burdens up, potentially increasing import demand for urea and DAP to offset domestic tightness.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.