Vinachem reports urea prices turned higher after reaching one-year lows at the Gulf, with Middle East prices up $10 on an Egyptian tender. Ammonia is expected to fall as Black Sea prices break, and Plains retail offers are at $290-300.
A rebound in urea tenders and stabilising Chinese supply may firm nitrogen costs, though weak ammonia and high US output cap the upside for corn growers.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.