
The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75-1.00% in its May meeting, with a unanimous vote, and maintained its balance sheet policy. The statement retained hawkish undertones, keeping the outlook for further 2017 rate hikes in play, and the dollar rose while gold fell.
A firmer dollar and expectations of more Fed hikes weigh on dollar-priced commodities and strengthen the USD against emerging-market currencies, which can lower US export competitiveness for grains and meal.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.