Vinachem's outlook says the fertilizer industry faced uneven demand and depressed crop prices in 2016, running at 81% of primary nutrient capacity. It projects nutrient sales growing about 1.4% a year to 266 Mt by 2021, while large new capacity comes online.
A growing gap between rising supply and modest demand growth points to softer nitrogen and phosphate prices over the next several years, easing input costs for feed producers.
After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.