
Fitch expects urea to average $630/tonne in 2022 after lower year-to-date prices, and says most fertilizer prices will fall in 2023 but stay above mid-cycle levels. The agency cites 3.8m tonnes of new global urea capacity in 2022 excluding China, with further additions in 2023 and 2024.
New capacity additions and easing ammonia supply constraints point to lower nitrogen input costs for feed grain growers, though prices remain elevated.
After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.