
Pakistan's government acknowledged a fertiliser shortfall of more than 200,000 tonnes during question hour in the National Assembly. Two urea plants temporarily suspended operations because of gas supply disruptions, which the government linked to the Middle East situation.
About half of Pakistan's fertiliser needs are met by imports, and prices have risen.
Lost urea output in a major importing country adds to tight nitrogen supply during the Gulf disruption, supporting urea prices and raising input costs for feed grain producers in the region.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.