
Rabobank's Q2 2017 Global Dairy Quarterly says world milk production is recovering after a sharp contraction in late 2016, helped by higher farmgate prices and better weather. US farmgate prices are running well above Europe and Oceania, and US milk output is expected to keep growing.
European output has lagged, with Germany and France below last year in the first half.
Rising global milk supply pressures dairy prices, though the US demand outlook for butter and cheese remains firm. Feed buyers should expect continued strong margins over feed to keep herd expansion going.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.