
Rabobank reports that dairy value chain participants are being squeezed, with producer milk prices down from 2022 highs while feed prices remain at record levels. It forecasts 2023 milk production growth in the Big 7 export regions at 0.7%, down from its prior 1% estimate.
Slower milk output growth and weaker dairy prices point to softer dairy demand for feed and lower milk prices, while high feed costs squeeze producer margins.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.