The March dairy report notes that US all-milk prices in January hit their highest since 2013-14 and that milk output growth of about 2.5% has pushed cheese output ahead of consumption. Exports reached 13% of milk solids in January, the second-highest January share on record.
Surging milk supply that outpaces demand pressures cheese and milk prices, though strong export flows partly offset domestic oversupply.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.