
USDA data showed April milk production in Wisconsin up 2 percent year over year and national output roughly flat, which surprised the market, which had expected a decline. Milk prices fell after the report, and analysts expect only slight production growth later in 2024.
Flat national output versus expectations of a decline eased supply tightness and pushed milk prices lower after the release. Dairy demand and feed use would be affected if production stays above expectations.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.