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IFCN reports world milk production grew only 1.1% in 2016, the slowest rate since 1997, which lifted prices. It expects a new price cycle to start in 2018 with a downward trend as production expands.
Expected production growth in 2018 points to a downward milk price trend, which weighs on dairy-linked feed demand. The outlook depends on how quickly supply responds.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.