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Rabobank expects key dairy exporting regions to grow milk production 0.8% in 2025, a new record that surpasses the 2021 peak. Higher farmgate prices and lower feed costs are driving the growth, while trade uncertainty is a risk for US partners.
A global production record with rising supply tends to cap dairy prices and export values despite strong current milk prices.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.