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Agricultural traders have sharply cut their bearish bets on US soybeans in recent weeks as drought and cloud cover hit the crop during a critical period. The USDA estimated at the start of the week that soybean crop condition had deteriorated.
Pod-setting over the next month is highly sensitive to moisture and sunlight, so a worsening crop supports soybean prices and reduces the risk of a large harvest-driven selloff.
ft.comJul 25, 2017After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
