Industry groups reacted to the EPA's 2018 draft Renewable Volume Obligations, which keep conventional biofuel at 15 billion gallons and hold biomass-based diesel and corn ethanol pools steady. Advanced biofuels fell by 40,000 gallons and cellulosic volumes fell about 30%, with comments from 11 industry leaders.
Flat conventional and biomass-based diesel volumes mean little incremental demand for corn or soybean oil, while the cuts to advanced and cellulosic targets are mildly bearish for soyoil.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.