Malaysia plans to export surplus biodiesel because its B10 blending programme has stalled for more than 12 months. Crude oil below US$50 a barrel and stakeholder objections have delayed implementation, and no deadline has been set.
A B10 delay leaves palm oil without the domestic biodiesel demand that would absorb excess supply and lift prices, while exports shift the surplus abroad.
After 400 past bearish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, WTI moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.