Indonesia will probably miss its target to raise palm oil-based biodiesel consumption to a record, with demand seen at about 3 million kilolitres this year versus a 4.6 million kilolitre target. Industries are shunning the biofuel without state subsidies, and the government is unlikely to extend them amid a widening fiscal deficit.
Weaker biodiesel blending removes a source of palm oil demand, which may weigh on Malaysian futures as Indonesian and Malaysian output recovers from last year's El Nino.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.