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Urea prices jumped after India launched a new purchase tender for about 2 million tonnes, only weeks after its previous one. Few buyers outside India have been active, and Chinese exports are picking up.
Russia/Ukraine peace talks are also flagged as a factor that could shift US trade policy.
India's fast return to the market supports prices, but limited buying from other importers and rising Chinese supply could weigh on the market in the short term. The outcome of the peace talks adds an uncertain policy risk.
stonex.comJosh LinvilleAug 28, 2025stonex.comJosh LinvilleAug 28, 2025stonex.comJosh LinvilleAug 29, 2025stonex.comJosh LinvilleAug 28, 2025After 23 past neutral trade events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.0%), and +2.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 36 past neutral trade events, DAP moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.0% to +2.1%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
