Hess warns offshore oil investment is needed to avoid shortages by 2020, while European diesel benchmarks have surged above $550 per metric ton for the first time since July 2015. Bloomberg notes strong demand and refinery outages have drained diesel stocks.
Tight diesel stocks and strong demand point to higher fuel costs for shipping and farm logistics, while long-term supply concerns support crude prices.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.