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ABARES expects its December 2017 winter crop forecast to be lower than September but still around the 10-year average. Rural Bank forecasts Australian crop production 30% below last season and 10% below the five-year average.
Expected lower Australian output reduces export supply for wheat and barley, which supports global feed grain prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.