◂ Event Timeline

Dec 4, 2018WEATHERAustralia

Winter crop production down after poor start to spring: ABARES

ABARES forecast Australian winter crop production down 23 per cent to 29.3 million tonnes for 2018-19, 20 per cent below the 20-year average. Poor early spring conditions hit most cropping regions, and New South Wales and Queensland output is expected to be the lowest in over 20 years.

WHY IT MATTERS

Lower Australian exports of feed barley and wheat tighten global feed supplies, supporting feed grain prices into the new year.

AFFECTSWheat (SRW)▲Barley▲

SOURCE
graincentral.comDec 4, 2018

Price reaction & history

Wheat (SRW)▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.3%5d -0.3%20d +1.5%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

Sep 12, 2017Forecast decrease for winter crop production: ABARES - Grain Central+1.0%
Oct 26, 2018Dry September cuts winter crop prospects by 15pc: ABARES - Grain Central+0.8%
Dec 10, 2019Ag production falls for third year in row: ABARES - Grain Central+2.5%
Aug 8, 2017Wheat production forecast down: NAB - Grain Central+0.5%
Oct 13, 2017Dry prompts ABARES to tip reduced Australian crop size - Grain Central+0.3%

Barley▲bullish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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Barley BARLEY · GP ▸

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