ABARES cut its Australian winter crop forecast for 2018/19 to 28.22 million tonnes, down 15% from September, after dry September conditions and frost. Wheat was revised 13% lower to 16.53Mt, barley 17% lower to 6.91Mt, and canola 20% lower to 2.23Mt.
A sharply smaller Australian crop tightens southern hemisphere wheat, barley and canola supply, supporting world export prices and creating import demand that lifts global feed grain and meal values.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.