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Grain Central reports that CottonInfo/AgEcon climate risk lead Jon Welsh sees a high degree of scatter in weather models, making winter crop prospects in eastern Australia hard to call. Soil moisture is very low, and a possible negative Indian Ocean Dipole conflicts with El Niño signals from the Pacific.
Low soil moisture and dry-leaning ENSO signals in Australia could limit winter crop planting and future barley and wheat exports, which would support prices for those grains.
graincentral.comNeil LyonMay 9, 2018After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
