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Victoria's 2017 wheat crop is now unlikely to match NSW after a dry spring, with Mallee and Wimmera crops needing rain and recovering from frost damage. ABARES puts Victoria's wheat at 3.5 million tonnes and NSW at 6.3 million tonnes.
Reduced Victorian yields tighten Australian wheat and barley supply, a modest bullish factor for export prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.