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Argentina's soybean carryover for the current cycle is forecast at a record 16 million tonnes by the Rosario Grain Exchange, up from about 11 million last year. Farmers are holding beans in silo bags amid low domestic prices, while a 30% export tax is set to begin declining by 0.5% per month from January 2018.
A record carryover adds supply pressure on soybean and meal prices, and shifting acreage toward corn could tighten the corn balance later. Farmer selling may be restrained by storage, but the tax cut from January could support export flows.
news.agropages.comOct 13, 2017After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
