
Argentine farmers sold 61.8% of the 2021/22 soybean harvest by mid-September, moving 2.3 million tonnes in the week to September 14. Sales rose after a more favorable exchange rate was introduced on September 5, and the central bank then tightened FX access for those sales.
Heavy farmer selling adds to near-term export supply of soybeans and products, pressuring prices, while the tighter FX access is expected to slow sales and ease that pressure.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.