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Argentina's government decree allows agro-exporters to freely access 25% of their foreign-exchange earnings during September to buy soybeans. The measure is meant to lift the domestic soybean price and speed grain sales, and the implied peso rate was about 455 per dollar on the alternative market.
By encouraging farmers to sell soybeans and products quickly, the measure raises near-term Argentine supply, which is bearish for soy complex prices, while the peso gap signals strong devaluation pressure.
datamarnews.comGabriel MalheirosSep 5, 2023After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
