Prices for most dry dairy products were at 12- to 18-month lows in early November, with cheese and butter prices declining, cheese stocks at record highs and milk production still rising. USDA lowered its 2018 dairy price forecasts in its November WASDE, though full-year 2017 averages are expected to remain above year-ago levels.
Record cheese stocks and rising milk output point to continued softness in dairy product values, with nonfat dry milk weighed down by abundant skim solids and milk fat tight globally. Lower product prices pressure Class III milk and dairy-based feed ingredient values.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.