
India has imposed a 50 percent customs duty on yellow peas, raised wheat duty from 10 to 20 percent, and sharply increased duties on imported palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils. Import curbs on tur, urad and moong remain in place, yet domestic prices of pulses and oilseeds have not recovered.
Higher duties on vegetable oil imports cut Indian demand for palm and soybean oil, which is bearish for those oils, and wheat tariffs reduce import demand for wheat.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 399 past bearish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.