
Statistics Canada estimated the 2017 oat crop at 3.724 million metric tons, up 16.6% from 2016 and the highest in four years. Licensed Canadian oat exports reached 599,500 mt through the week ended December 3, up 27.7% year over year and 42% above the five-year average.
A larger Canadian crop combined with brisk export pace tightens exportable supply less than expected, supporting feed-oat demand; exports running ahead of AAFC forecasts may prompt upward revisions to export projections.
After 35 past neutral report events, OATS moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.